Best Poker Bets

Thrice is Nice - Rule of Thumb Principle for Best Bets

Jump to Thrice - No Loser

The principle is that the Best Bet Hands are those that have THREE Ways of winning.
A bonus of 1 point is applied if you have a card higher than the existing cards on the table, or matching the highest card.
This bonus always applies for Ace, and often for Kings.

In general the potential ways of winning are:

• Pair in Hand
• Card > 6
• Cards Connected
• Suited Cards

Each Way of Winning is assigned a point => see the table below for examples.

So for example:

• AKs has a score of 4 => Connected, Suited and 2 cards > 6
• AKo has a score of 3 => Connected, with 2 cards > 6
• Any Two cards, both > 6 will have a score of 3 if Suited or Connected or 4 if Both Suited AND Connected
• Pairs > 6 will ALL have a score >3 (2 cards> 6 & a Pair)
• Pocket Pairs < 7 will ONLY have a score of 3 when Suited AND Connected
• Connected Cards, both > 6, will ALL have scores of 3 (2 cards> 6 & Connected)
• Two cards, < 6 will only have a score of 3, if BOTH cards are Suited and Connected
• A with any card, gets a boost, because it is the highest card. So A with any card > 6 will get a score of 3. A with any card < 7 will only score 3 when Suited.
• K with any card will often get a boost because it is the highest card. So K with any card > 6 will generally get a score of 3. K with any card < 7 will only score 3 when suited.

CHECK and 'Look-See' Small Bets

Two cards > 6, or cards with Scores of 2, with two ways of winning. For example: QTo, Q9o, T8o, 87o, J8o

FOLD cards

Two cards < 6 or Scores of 1 or 0, with one way of winning and poor prospects. For example: 57o, 64o, 35o, Q6o, J4o, 66, 55

Examples of THRICE Hands are:

* Bonus of 1 point for any card Higher than the cards on the Table. Always applied for Aces.

** Kings will often be the Highest card on the table and so the bonus for highest, generally applies for Kings.

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Thrice – Loser Principles

The principle is to not continuing betting when there are ONE to THREE Ways of Losing. The more LIVE players there are, the more ways there are to lose. So the prospect of losing multiplies the ways of losing. Chance always RULES and so your opponents bet size and how they bet is a good indicator of what they have.

In general the ways of losing and warning signs are:

• Triple – Pair of cards on the Table

• Straight – 2 or 3 connected cards on the Table

• Better Straight – 2 or 3 connected cards on the Table, when you have the bottom completion card

• Flush – 3 or 4 Suited Cards on the Table, opponent has higher flush cards, especially with 4 on table

• Matched Pair – You don't have the highest matched pair card on the Table

• Two Matched Pairs – You don't have the highest matched pairs card on the Table

• Pair in Hand – Opponent has a hidden pair in their hand

OFFSETS

Can you still win in these situations?

• You have a match with the highest card on the Table or can form a better pair, but watch out for you supporting card. For example, A3 versus AK

• You can form a straight, but watch out for higher straight possibilities

• You can form a flush with a high card

• You have a winning pair in the hand

• But Look-See for Free or for minimal cost!

Note: Do not except to win hands with only a single pair match, especially when there are 3 or more players.

Note: To chance it YOU MUST HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING. If you can be beaten and there is a high bet against you - say for a flush to straight then don't commit suicide!!!

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Phases, Card Rankings and Strategy for 9 Player Tournament

Outlined below are the Phases for a 9 Player Tournament, The Card Ranking Changes, and Strategy Shifts as the number of players declines and the blind size increases.

The table below shows the changes in win probabilities for numbers of players from 10 to 2. The data assumes that all players continue to the end of the game.

The color codings for the cards are the traffic lights scores: Green, Amber and Red. the probability range colors are >30% and 15-29%.

The key changes in probabilities are the number of players declines are:

• The pocket pairs rank higher
• A, K and Q with ANY card, including 6 to 2, rank higher.
• J and T with any card also rank higher
• The hands that decline in probability are mostly Q, J, T combinations with 7, 8, 9 SUITED. This signifies the drop in win rates for Straights. When folds are included, it shows that games with 2-3 players seldom get to the River, Run and Completion for Flushes and Straights.

These changes reflect the increased emphasis on one matched pair winning the hand. In a real game many hands will be completed early with large bets and this initial match.

Phase 1. Initial phase with 9 players, small blinds

• The large number of players means it is hard to win. Very good hands are required, you need to reduce the number of players by betting before and after the flop.
• Small blinds provides 'Look-See' opportunities, but A + 6 to 2 and K + 6 to 2 are likely to be beaten. More than one player likely to have an Ace
• Single matched pairs are unlikely to win hands
• Many players will go all-in early to try to fluke a bigger pot => you can lose your bids this way
  better to save your stack until after this 'crazy' phase is over.

Phase 2. Mid-Game generally with 6 players and medium blinds

• Traditional tactics, betting and cards-to-play strategies apply during this phase when there is less volatility
• Best value for smart well sized bets, during this mid-phase.
• Fewer players and so easier to predict your opponents hand range.
• Higher bets can induce early folds to limit their potential for straights and flushes.

Phase 3. Closing Game, generally with 2-3 players with large blinds

• Much greater emphasis on the court cards especially A, K and Q. Betting high on a match for these cards, can induce a fold and win the hand.
• More incomplete games are won with a single matched pair
• Less emphasis on Flushes and Straights as it is too costly to bet through to the end of the game
• Pocket pairs also work well, because most of the time any pair will win.

Phase 4. Head to Head - Two Players

• Traditional head to head tactics => Fold or All-in
• Any pair will do
• Bluffing to the Fore
• Get a bet in early and no need to fold as before as any pair, even small pairs will win. Chance plays a hugh part. Raise early to build stack and get on a roll
• Work to induce an early fold with bluffing and the bet strategy

Table 3. How the hand win-probabilities change with number of players from 10 to 2. The Card hand colors are the traffic-lights system - Blue/Green, Amber and Red (left as White). The first suited and unsuited pairs with a 7 (A7) are shown Underlined. The probabilities are ranked from highest to lowest, assuming all players continue to the end of the game. For pairs with both cards 10 or greater win probabilities are 20% (8 players), 24% (6 players), 33% (4 players), 44% (3 players), 58% (2 players). For pairs with both cards 7 or greater win probabilities are 16% (8 players), 22% (6 players), 30% (4 players), 38% (3 players), 52% (2 players). Notice that J10o and J9o (the first Js ) appear well down the list and are ranked POOR (red) for win probability. Pairs 77, 66, 55 get better outcomes than expected, especially with fewer players (bird in the hand). This emphasises how higher cards matter.